As Fantastic as Last Year (and the year before)…

In the next six months you will witness one of the greatest economic comebacks in the history of mankind.

Unemployment will tumble and the rate will be 7%. There will be a new and aggressive energy policy ensuring our independence. There will be a new and massive housing reclamation similar to the 1980′s RTC that will bail out homeowners while giving investors access to property under current market prices. You will see banks fixing their balance sheets and corporate America will have the opportunity to repatriate trillion in offshore profits, no questions asked. The economic numbers will be messaged to always be better than expected and Chairman Bernanke will continue to worry aloud about slower than hoped-for growth, ensuring ZIRP and stimulus-at-the-ready, forever.

Can you see where I’m going with this?

The only thing different about this year versus the past two is that this is an election year. In the past two years, the major indices began a rally in the September-October time-frame and rallied in an almost uninterrupted fashion until about tax day. Each time it was on the back of better than expected economic numbers and more stimulus. Each year followed the same game plan of doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result. Is this the very definition of insanity?

Regardless of my disdain for the current economic regime, I know enough not to short anything in the face of strength (but I am getting very tempted). I am long a few stocks, but not nearly enough. My suggestion is not to confuse brains with a bullish market environment, regardless of the fundamental backdrop (do you really think the job numbers mean anything? They don’t).

Enjoy the rally, the Superbowl and the weekend!